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Find out how to Enhance Commodity Momentum Utilizing Intra-Market Correlation
Momentum is among the most researched market anomalies, well-known and extensively accepted in each public and tutorial sectors. Its idea is easy: purchase an asset when its value rises and promote it when it falls. The objective is to reap the benefits of these developments to realize higher returns than a easy buy-and-hold technique. Sadly, over the past many years, now we have been observers of the diminishing returns of the momentum methods in all asset lessons. On this article, we’ll current an intra-market correlation filter that may assist considerably enhance commodity momentum efficiency and return this technique as soon as once more into the highlight.
Whereas early momentum analysis primarily centered on shares, comparable patterns have been recognized throughout varied asset lessons. As an example, our Quantpedia Screener lists a momentum technique particularly for commodity futures. The technique includes rating the commodity futures by efficiency over the previous 12 months and dividing them into quintiles. The highest-performing quintile is purchased, and the bottom-performing quintile is offered, with rebalancing going down every month.
In Quantpedia’s analysis titled “What’s the Finest Issue for Excessive Inflation Intervals?“, the momentum impact was discovered to be optimistic in periods of excessive inflation round World Struggle II and the Oil Disaster of 1973. Nevertheless, in recent times, the efficiency of momentum methods has declined. Momentum has struggled to successfully distinguish between winners and losers in homogeneous funding universes, as totally analyzed within the latest Quantpedia analysis paper titled “Robustness Testing of Nation and Asset ETF Momentum Methods”. The findings counsel that momentum methods carry out higher in asset-based ETFs than in country-based ETFs because of the decrease correlation between belongings.
Constructing on these insights, this paper goals to handle the latest decline in momentum efficacy by exploring the best way to implement momentum in homogeneous commodity ETFs, relatively than commodity futures. First, we check a fundamental momentum technique, which doesn’t produce important alpha. Subsequent, we enhance the essential technique through the use of the ratio of short-term to long-term common correlations as a sign for when it’s favorable to use momentum methods, yielding promising outcomes. We suggest a method based mostly on this intra-market correlation filter.
Methodology and Knowledge
For this evaluation, we selected sector commodity ETFs as a consequence of their ease of use, size of information, accessibility, and no want for complicated rolling procedures. The technique focuses on 4 sector-specific commodity ETFs: DBA (agriculture), DBB (base metals), DBE (vitality), and DBP (valuable metals). These ETFs supply an extended backtesting interval, ranging from 2007, in comparison with particular person commodity ETFs. Knowledge had been sourced from Yahoo Finance, utilizing the adjusted shut costs (adjusted for inventory splits, dividend distributions, and different related occasions affecting inventory’s worth) for the chosen ETFs. From the every day information, we calculated each every day and month-to-month efficiency.
Step 1
Step one was to duplicate a easy momentum technique utilizing the 4 ETFs (DBA, DBB, DBE, and DBP). Every month, we calculated the 1- to 12-month momentum for every ETF and ranked them based mostly on their efficiency. This rating supplied the indicators for which ETFs to go lengthy and which to quick. The technique concerned going lengthy on the 2 best-performing ETFs and quick on the 2 worst-performing ones mimicking the essential premise of momentum that winners will proceed to outperform and losers will proceed to underperform. The portfolio was equally weighted and rebalanced on a month-to-month foundation.
Outcomes of step 1
Desk 1 easy momentum traits
Determine 1 easy momentum technique
As anticipated, the momentum technique on commodities yielded poor efficiency. Desk 1 reveals that whereas it barely outperforms the benchmark return, this comes at the price of larger volatility. This end result aligns with earlier analysis, together with analysis by Quantpedia. In homogeneous markets like commodities, the place belongings are extremely correlated, momentum struggles to successfully differentiate between winners and losers, resulting in disappointing efficiency.
One potential manner to enhance efficiency of momentum methods in commodity ETFs is by turning to low-liquidity belongings. In one among Quantpedia’s earlier research “Find out how to Use Unique Belongings to Enhance Your Buying and selling Technique”, the authors examined the illiquidity premium—the concept that anticipated returns enhance with illiquidity—by working a set of momentum methods utilizing commodity futures contracts from two main commodity indices, S&P GSCI and BCOM. The outcomes confirmed that non-indexed, or unique, low-liquidity belongings outperformed listed ones, providing larger returns with almost the identical danger as listed commodity methods.
Step 2
Whereas turning to low-liquidity belongings was one choice, we determined to discover alternative routes to make momentum methods work successfully in commodity ETFs. Our objective was to discover a dependable predictor that might sign when it’s favorable to use a momentum technique and when it’s not. We quickly found that the ratio of short-term to long-term correlation might function such a predictor.
The following step in our evaluation concerned calculating common short-term (measured over 20 days) and aveage long-term (measured over 250 days) correlations from the every day efficiency of the 4 ETFs. If the common short-term correlation exceeds the common long-term correlation between ETFs, it signifies that commodities are trending in a single route, permitting momentum methods to extra successfully distinguish between winners and losers. Deploying momentum underneath these situations can subsequently be extra worthwhile. In abstract, correlation filter permits us to use the momentum technique selectively, utilizing it solely when market situations are favorable.
Outcomes of step 2
As proven in Desk 2, the correlation predictor results in extra pleasing outcomes in comparison with the essential momentum technique. It outperforms the momentum technique throughout all efficiency metrics, together with annual returns, volatility, most drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio. The correlation filter seems to be fairly sturdy. Whatever the momentum rating interval (1-12 months), the filter reliably identifies when it’s acceptable to commerce the momentum technique (determine & desk 2) and when it’s extra appropriate to commerce the reversal impact because the momentum technique constantly yields adverse outcomes (determine & desk 3).
Desk 2 lengthy predictor traits
Determine 2 lengthy predictor
Desk 3 quick predictor traits
Determine 3 quick predictor
Step 3
The insights gained from this analysis open the door for the event of recent, thrilling methods. Based mostly on these findings and present literature, we suggest the next technique utilizing a correlation filter: if the short-term correlation is larger than the long-term correlation, apply the momentum technique by going lengthy on the two best-performing and quick on the two worst-performing sector commodity ETFs, based mostly on a 12-month rating, and maintain the positions for 1 month. If the short-term correlation is decrease than the long-term correlation, apply a reversal technique by going lengthy on the two worst-performing and quick on the two best-performing sector commodity ETFs (based mostly on a 12-month rating), and maintain the positions for 1 month. As proven in Determine 4 and supported by the leads to Desk 4, this mixed technique (Mother+Rev) almost doubles the return of both the standalone momentum or reversal methods. Though the upper volatility and most drawdown counsel an elevated degree of danger, this can be justified by the considerably larger returns.
Desk 4 instructed technique traits
Determine 4 instructed technique
Conclusion
On this paper, we addressed the challenges of momentum in homogeneous markets like commodities utilizing extensively out there sector commodity ETFs.
In abstract, whereas a fundamental momentum technique utilized to commodities yields disappointing outcomes, incorporating a predictor based mostly on intra-market correlation considerably enhances momentum technique’s efficiency. This ratio between 20-day and 250-day correlation gives a dependable sign figuring out when commodities are trending strongly sufficient for momentum to tell apart between winners and losers.
Writer: Margareta Pauchlyova, Quant Analyst, Quantpedia
References
Quantpedia. (n.d.). Momentum impact in commodities. Retrieved September 1, 2024, from https://quantpedia.com/methods/momentum-effect-in-commodities/
Quantpedia. (n.d.). What’s the perfect issue for top inflation intervals? (Half II). Retrieved September 1, 2024, from https://quantpedia.com/whats-the-best-factor-for-high-inflation-periods-part-ii/
Du, Jiang and Vojtko, Radovan, Robustness Testing of Nation and Asset ETF Momentum Methods (March 25, 2023). Obtainable at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/summary=4736699 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4736699
Cisár, Dominik and Vojtko, Radovan, Find out how to Use Unique Belongings for Buying and selling Technique Enchancment (September 3, 2021). Obtainable at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/summary=3916918 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3916918
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