Jamie Dimon says he still sees a recession on the horizon

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon mentioned Wednesday he nonetheless believes that the chances of a “gentle touchdown” for the U.S. economic system are round 35% to 40%, making recession the almost definitely situation in his thoughts.

When requested by CNBC’s Leslie Picker if he had modified his view from earlier this 12 months that markets have been too optimistic on recession dangers, Dimon mentioned the chances have been “about the identical” as his earlier name.

“There’s a whole lot of uncertainty on the market,” Dimon mentioned. “I’ve all the time pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these items trigger some consternation in markets.”

Dimon, chief of the largest U.S. financial institution by belongings and one of the vital revered voices on Wall Road, has warned of an financial “hurricane” since 2022. However the economic system has held up higher than he anticipated, and Dimon mentioned Wednesday that whereas credit-card borrower defaults are rising, America isn’t in a recession proper now.

Dimon added he’s “a bit of little bit of a skeptic” that the Federal Reserve can convey inflation right down to its 2% goal due to future spending on the inexperienced economic system and army.

“There’s all the time a wide range of outcomes,” Dimon mentioned. “I am totally optimistic that if now we have a gentle recession, even a more durable one, we’d be okay. In fact, I am very sympathetic to individuals who lose their jobs. You don’t need a tough touchdown.”