For over a decade, Lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU) has had a stranglehold on the athleisure style market. Luluemon inventory hit a excessive of roughly $511/share at first of 2024. However, since then, it has tumbled 40% – dangerous sufficient to make one of many worst-performing shares within the S&P 500. So, that is the proper time to scoop up shares of Lulu at a reduction? Or is that this the start of the top for Lulu’s dominance?

Let’s have a look.

Lulu’s Most Current Quarter

I dove into Lululemon’s most up-to-date quarterly earnings report (June sixth) to get an thought of how the corporate has been performing just lately. Right here’s what I discovered:

Internet Income: $2.2 billion, up 10% yearly. 
Gross Revenue: $1.3 billion, up 11% yearly
Stability Sheet: The corporate ended the Q1 2024 with $1.9 billion in money
Steerage: For Q2 2024, Lululemon expects internet income of $2.4 – $2.42 billion, which might signify progress of 9% to 10%
Inventory Repurchases: The Board of Administrators licensed a $1 billion inventory buyback program.

At first look, these outcomes usually are not dangerous in any respect. However, they’re additionally not overwhelmingly good – particularly for an organization that ought to nonetheless be rising pretty rapidly. 

CEO Calvin McDonald said that there was sturdy momentum in worldwide markets final quarter. He additionally confirmed that the corporate left cash on the desk by not having sufficient merchandise in inventory to fulfill excessive demand. McDonald additionally said that he’s assured within the firm’s skills shifting ahead. 

Trying forward, the corporate is specializing in product innovation, visitor expertise, and market enlargement. Lululemon additionally expects progress in these areas:

Males’s Attire 
E-commerce
Worldwide internet income: Worldwide income at present makes up simply 21% of the corporate’s gross sales. Lulu hopes to quadruple 2024 int’l income relative to 2021.

Nevertheless, so far as dangerous information, Lululemon introduced the departure of its Chief Product Officer, Solar Choe. In accordance to a couple stories I learn, Choe was a driving power behind product innovation at Lululemon. The corporate will miss Choe and has needed to reshuffle its inside construction following this departure. 

So, what does all this imply for buyers?

Time to Purchase Lululemon Inventory?

With Lululemon inventory down 40% YTD, it’d look like time to deploy Warren Buffet’s well-known recommendation of “purchase an excellent firm at a very good worth.” However, I don’t assume this is applicable to Luluemon inventory proper now. I consider that there’s draw back potential forward for Lululemon thanks to a few threat components.

Danger #1 – Elevated Competitors

Years in the past, Lululemon was just about alone within the athleisure house. This wasn’t all too shocking, for the reason that firm basically created athleisure. Positive, you can argue that Nike (NYSE: NKE) or Adidas (OTCMKTS: ADDYY) have been semi-competitors. However, Lululemon was all the time in a vastly completely different house than these two all-in-one athletic attire giants. Lulu goes after a way more area of interest, high-end market.

Lulu’s days of monopolistic energy are rapidly coming to an finish. As we speak, Lululemon faces steep competitors from corporations like Alo, Vuori, Health club Shark, Fabletics, and plenty of smaller manufacturers. Granted, none of those corporations have grown to the dimensions of Lululemon (but). However, they’re all nonetheless formidable opponents:

Vuori: This San Diego-based model is value an estimated $4 billion and is contemplating an IPO. It has additionally differentiated itself from Lululemon by primarily focusing on males (an space that Lulu is seeking to for progress). For what it’s value, I (a 28-year-old male) personal garments from each manufacturers and like Vuori for a handful of causes.
Alo: Alo is value an estimated $10 billion. It gained reputation because of its savvy influencer-first strategy to advertising.
Fabletics: Fabletics thought of an IPO in 2021 that may have valued it at $5 billion. I couldn’t discover any numbers more moderen than this.
Gymshark: Gymshark is valued at just below $2 billion. It’s additionally based mostly in the UK which may hinder Lulu’s worldwide enlargement plans.

With a market cap of just below $40 billion, these corporations nonetheless pale compared to Lululemon. However, that’s not the purpose. The purpose is that roughly 10 years in the past Lululemon was the one title in high-end athletic attire. As we speak, there are many locations the place prospects should buy a $128 pair of leggings or pants. Two of those opponents (Vuori and Gymshark) additionally function in verticals that Lulu is seeking to for progress.

Gross sales information for the 4 opponents listed above is basically personal. So, I used one other metric to match them to Lululemon: Instagram followers (Nasdaq: META). Right here’s how they stack up:

Gymshark: 7 million followers (Gymshark Girls has 3.5 million)
Lululemon: 5 million 
Alo: 2 million 
Fabletics: 2 million
Vuori: 1 million

If you happen to’re considering of shopping for Lululemon inventory, it’s a must to take into account how this competitors may eat into Lululemon’s progress over the following 5-10 years. Lululemon has such a head begin so it’s unlikely that it’ll get absolutely dethroned from its prime place. However, the corporate additionally gained’t benefit from the monopolistic place that it had over the previous yr. Loads of former-Lulu male prospects might begin choosing Vuori whereas abroad athletes might select Gymshark.

Danger #2 – Dupe Tradition 

The rise of dupe tradition is one other problem that might damage Lululemon inventory within the coming months. A “dupe” or duplicate is only a knockoff of an present product. 

The price of residing within the US has risen dramatically up to now few years. In response, US shoppers are turning to dupes greater than ever. In Lululemon’s case, extra persons are shopping for off-brand yoga pants for $40 as a substitute of shelling out $128 to purchase Lulus. If you happen to seek for #Lululemondupe on TikTok, you’ll see tons of movies on the topic that routinely get hundreds of thousands of views. I additionally took a take a look at Google Traits information, which confirmed that web searches for “lululemon dupe” have been persistently trending greater since 2020. 

Lululemon isn’t the one firm that has to cope with dupes. In actual fact, most high-end manufacturers can anticipate their merchandise to get copied. For instance, Nike (Nasdaq: NKE) has all the time had a problem with pretend Air Jordans nevertheless it has by no means appeared to harm the corporate’s income.

Proper now, it’s exhausting to inform if dupe tradition is hurting Lululemon’s gross sales. However, it’s a large enough problem that Lululemon felt the necessity to addressed it. Both manner, dupes are one other threat issue for Lulu shifting ahead.

Danger #3 – Gen Z’s Dishevelled Pants Development

Lululemon has made a residing off of its skin-hugging yoga pants. However, from what I’ve seen, Gen Zers present a choice for baggier sweatpants, hoodies, and t-shirts.

 A 5-year Google Traits chart for “dishevelled pants” helps this thesis. However, aside from that, I don’t have a lot tangible information to level to for this development. It’s simply one thing I’ve noticed on social media and in my very own life. In my expertise, tighter garments appear to be on their manner out whereas overly dishevelled clothes is in. I scanned Lululemon’s web site and didn’t discover something that appeared like they’ve caught on to this development. Lululemon additionally launched in 1995 and had a stranglehold on shoppers within the 2000s and 2010s. However, by this level, Lulu may not resonate as a lot with youthful buyers. If this doesn’t change, I wouldn’t be shocked if Lululemon began to get stereotyped as an “older individuals model” within the coming years and misplaced floor to “cooler” upstarts (just like the aforementioned Vuori, Alo, Gymshark, and so on). That mentioned, style developments differ by area and may change rapidly. 

That is admittedly the weakest threat on this checklist. However, it’s nonetheless a possible threat nonetheless. 

Now, again to the query at hand.

Ought to You Purchase Lululemon Inventory?

I wouldn’t. It looks like Lulu is going through fairly a couple of headwinds over the approaching months. The corporate simply misplaced a key govt in Solar Choe. It’s additionally going through steep competitors within the precise verticals the place it’s hoping for progress (males’s put on and worldwide markets). The inventory has additionally been getting punished to date this yr, which is an indication that investor sentiment has modified for Lululemon – maybe the hardest impediment to beat. 

I don’t essentially assume that Lululemon inventory will tank over the approaching months. However, it’s seemingly that Lulu will underperform the market or at greatest break even. Even when Lulu hits its aim of 10% income progress in 2024, I don’t see buyers getting significantly excited. 

That mentioned, style developments can change on a dime. All it takes is the blowout success of 1 product to alter the narrative – a feat that Lulu has completed many occasions.

I hope that you simply’ve discovered this text helpful in terms of discovering whether or not or to not purchase Lululemon inventory. If you happen to’re fascinated by studying extra then please subscribe beneath to get alerted of recent articles.

Disclaimer: This text is for common informational and academic functions solely. It shouldn’t be construed as monetary recommendation because the writer, Ted Stavetski, will not be a monetary advisor.