What the 2024 Federal Elections Will Mean for the K-12 Market

The result of the presidential and congressional elections on Nov. 5 may have big implications for Okay-12 coverage and funding on the federal degree — and for firms working within the schooling market.

As presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand on reverse ends of the political spectrum on a lot of the necessary college points which have emerged on the marketing campaign path.

And each chambers in Congress are up for grabs. Within the U.S. Home, the GOP controls 220 seats to Democrats’ 212 seats (with three vacancies), whereas within the Senate, Democrats have a slim majority.

A lot of large ticket federal objects — from funding for key Okay-12 applications corresponding to Title I and Title II to the way forward for the U.S. Division of Schooling — might be decided by who’s elected in November.

“Each election issues rather a lot for the schooling system,” mentioned Reg Leichty, who advises Okay-12 teams on federal funds and coverage as a founding associate at Foresight Legislation + Coverage. “This one is especially consequential on the presidential degree, given a number of the very divisive rhetoric concerning the public schooling system.”

The specter of cuts to federal funding for teaching programs — multibillion-dollar applications that college districts rely closely on for important companies — looms based mostly on the end result of the election.

Many schooling firms rely on college methods with the ability to faucet into these funding streams as a way to pay for services in curriculum, evaluation, PD, ed tech, social-emotional studying, and lots of different areas.

The implications from the election additionally prolong past budgetary points to the chance that the federal authorities may turn into extra concerned in divisive political-culture debates which have roiled many college districts.

Regardless of the prevailing divisions, Leichty mentioned he’s considerably optimistic that lawmakers will put apart political variations and work collectively on education-related points, at the least in some areas.

EdWeek Market Transient spoke with Leichty about what schooling firms ought to count on from a Harris or Trump administration and shifting majorities in Congress, the prospect of bipartisanship on schooling subjects, and the way this November’s election will form different areas of presidency necessary to the schooling business.

This story is one in a sequence that can take a look at the influence of the November elections on the schooling sector.

How do Harris and Trump differ on spending on large federal applications which can be necessary to colleges and schooling firms?

It’s secure to say {that a} Trump administration would probably considerably disinvest in public schooling — and we now have a way of what a Trump schooling funds appears to be like like. For instance, the not too long ago handed Home Republican funds for the division of ed, the place we noticed an enormous minimize to Title I, full elimination of ESEA Title II, and flat funding for Title IV.

However, a Harris administration is more likely to proceed to be strongly dedicated to offering assist for Title I for low-income communities, and in a number of the necessary digital studying applications like Title IV that guarantee all college students have entry to the connectivity and linked units and different helps they should study.

Would you count on a Trump administration to enact main modifications to the U.S. Division of Schooling?

Former President Trump himself has form of plainly mentioned that his focus in schooling shall be on dismantling the division of ed. We all know he has expressed a need to basically alter the federal position in Okay-12 schooling. I’d count on, as they did through the Trump administration 4 years in the past, a heavy emphasis on selling entry to non-public schooling, a give attention to charters and different kinds of alternative mechanisms. We’ve seen what their priorities are by the final administration and extra not too long ago out on the marketing campaign path.

And the way do you count on a Harris administration would method the division of schooling?

We might probably see Vice President Harris champion most of the similar varieties of insurance policies that the Biden administration has targeted on the final 4 years. We might see a continued dedication by a Harris group to reasonably priced faculty entry and completion.

We noticed on the Democratic Conference a spotlight and need to emphasise making certain that college students have the employability expertise they have to be profitable. That features doubtlessly a give attention to strengthening workforce applications, together with the federal apprenticeship applications that target expertise acquisition. And I do suppose, as we’ve heard on the marketing campaign path, there could be a normal dedication to public schooling, and the children which can be served by the general public college system.

Do you suppose Trump would use his bully pulpit as president to stoke Okay-12 tradition wars over race and gender which have performed out in states and districts?

I do suppose that President Trump’s rhetoric has gone all in on putting schooling on the middle of the tradition wars. If he had been elected, it’s probably that he’ll proceed to give attention to the themes that divide relatively than carry folks collectively as communities to enhance public schooling. [In 2020, then-President Trump signed an executive order that sought to ban the use of “divisive concepts” in federal contracting. Various of that term were used in many states in efforts to restrict lessons on race and gender.]

There’s additionally the query of how do members on each side of the aisle that wish to transfer past a extra divisive debate about public schooling … come collectively to strengthen and higher serve the children in our communities that want essentially the most assist?

It’s most likely going to stay an especially divided Congress, post-election. How probably is it that bipartisan dealmaking may happen on college points?

There are members on each side of the aisle who’re deeply dedicated to public schooling. They worth the general public colleges of their communities. Many, if not most of them, are graduates of public colleges, and so they see the worth of it.

Regardless of a whole lot of powerful, decisive conversations on the contrary what we’ve seen is that individuals who assist public schooling on each side of the aisle have come collectively during the last eight years. There’ve been some bumps within the highway, however we’ve seen robust continued assist for making certain that our public colleges stay sort of anchor components of our communities.

If Republicans win management of each chambers, what do you suppose will occur with Okay-12 funding?

A Republican-controlled Congress is more likely to champion flat, or much less spending in public schooling. I feel the proof of that’s discovered within the U.S. Home Labor, Well being and Human Companies, Schooling and Associated companies fiscal 12 months 2025 invoice that the committee authorised a couple of weeks in the past, which cuts about $14 billion from Title I. That might be unprecedented.

May these deep cuts to Title I truly occur?

It’s necessary to keep in mind that except Republicans obtain a super-majority within the Senate, that’s except they’ve 60 votes, it can proceed to be tough for these varieties of excessive cuts to be adopted. And I feel there are additionally many Republicans within the Senate that disagree with the route that the Home Republicans have taken on schooling spending.

All that’s to say, whereas schooling spending would not going be on a trajectory to extend in an all Republican Congress subsequent 12 months, it’s most likely most definitely to be flat funded, as we’ve seen lately simply due to the issue of transferring deep cuts by a system that can undoubtedly nonetheless have a considerable variety of Senate Democrats and likewise Senate Republicans who aren’t pleasant to the sorts of deep cuts proposed by the Home Appropriations Committee this 12 months.

What do you count on to be a high precedence for the following Home and Senate schooling committees?

The committees, truthfully in the event that they’re Republican or Democrat managed, will proceed to make progress on the substantive coverage problems with this Congress, which have been about modernizing the Workforce Innovation and Alternative Act, exploring updates to the Nationwide Apprenticeship Act, and trying to discover a path towards increasing Pell Grant entry for shorter time period, prime quality applications.

That’s to say members on each side of the aisle are going to be searching for bipartisan victories in what’s more likely to be a really intently divided Congress. What we’ve discovered this 12 months and final 12 months is that there’s a whole lot of curiosity amongst Republicans and Democrats, and among the many Senate and Home, to attempt to replace the federal workforce applications. They’ve made a whole lot of progress … in the direction of that purpose.

On what different areas do you see prospects for compromise, and motion?

Considering from an ed-tech perspective, there’s some actually thrilling bipartisan provisions targeted on constructing out far more sturdy information infrastructure designed to advertise larger transparency for college kids and employers within the workforce system. There’s some thrilling issues taking place, even in a tough sort of political setting.

Are there different areas of Okay-12 that might turn into major points for the following Congress?

Proper after the election there’ll probably even be another points which will come up because of their prominence within the marketing campaign season. So there might be early conversations about proficiency challenges that youngsters have skilled publish pandemic, and the steps which can be being taken to get all college students again on observe.

There might be, within the Senate, an enormous give attention to literacy because of rating member Cassidy’s [U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La.] curiosity and management in that house. I simply actually count on workforce to proceed to be a central focus of whichever occasion is in energy.

Federal stimulus cash is expiring. To what diploma do you count on the following Congress to look at the extent to which these had been good investments?

We’ve already seen the Home Schooling and Workforce Committee maintain these varieties of oversight hearings, which is a central a part of their position as a committee. That’s their job. It’s very attainable that, for instance, if there’s a Republican majority within the Senate that we’d see some hearings about ESSER within the well being committee [U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions] as nicely.

However I feel we’ve had that dialog largely already because of the Republican majority within the Home. So sure, there might be some future hearings about ESSER, however I don’t count on it to be the dominant narrative of the following schooling committee’s work through the subsequent Congress.

Exterior of the White Home and Congress, what different methods may the federal election have an effect on ed tech or Okay-12?

There are additionally questions of who the following president shall be which can be linked to issues like judicial appointments. For instance, in the previous couple of weeks the Fifth Circuit Courtroom of Appeals, which is closely populated by appointees of President Trump, has dominated that the income system for the Common Service Fund, together with E-Fee, is unconstitutional.

And we now have an actual query about the way forward for one of many —if not the most important — ed-tech program within the federal authorities, which is E-Fee. So this isn’t simply concerning the bully pulpit, and it’s not simply concerning the composition of the Congress and the way forward for laws. It’s additionally concerning the appointees of the president and the work they’re doing, and the appointment of judges that may have a dramatically completely different view concerning the constitutional relationship of a few of these applications.

On that notice, the president appoints the chair of the Federal Communications Fee, which simply confirmed a fifth member final 12 months after an extended partisan impasse. How may this election have an effect on the FCC?

If Trump wins, it can convert to a Republican majority and so they may need completely different views on issues like E-Fee, Wi-Fi on buses, or E-Fee assist for cell hotspots. There are coverage points {that a} Trump FCC may train that is likely to be completely different and even dramatically completely different by way of how the E-Fee is used and what it’s used for and the way it’s funded.